Best player on the best team of the season– Napheesa Collier’s MVP campaign looked all but etched halfway through the season. Leading the league in scoring and the team to a historic record, the Lynx forward held a firm grip on the race. But let loose, and the rest are ready to pounce on the opportunity. For A’ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas, that window came in Collier’s ankle sprain.

The 2024 DPOY has been sidelined since early August with no immediate signs of return. The second week of September is the best estimation, and that seems to be all that the MVP contenders need to surge ahead. One more than the rest.

A’ja Wilson vs Alyssa Thomas: What do the statistics say?

Both A’ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas are on historic campaigns, keeping the MVP race tight. While Wilson is more of an offensive genius, averaging mammoth numbers, Thomas gets her teammates involved in every single possession. Think of Jokic vs Embiid, there’s never a clear answer there! However, if the stats hold any weight, here’s what they have got to say:

(Season averages as of Aug 24th, 2025)

From mere numbers, the crown is A’ja Wilson’s. The Las Vegas Aces star has been effectively using her six-foot-four frame on both ends of the court. Her offensive mastery shows through the 5 30-point performances she has put up in the last 10 games (4 in just the last 5). It is also the stretch that has propelled the Las Vegas Aces from 6th spot on the table to straight up 3rd. Where questions of silent trade period flooded the front office, Wilson has proudly anchored the experienced lot.

However, Alyssa Thomas has been holding her own against Wilson’s experienced MVP campaign as well. The six-foot-two forward on the Phoenix Mercury has been stuffing the statsheet every night, and more than anything else? She’s making her teammates better. Thomas is simply more efficient than her Aces counterpart, averaging 53.8% from the field as compared to Wilson’s 48.7%.

Because of her size, her court vision, and her ability to score the ball at will, Thomas is also a walking triple-double threat. She has 6 triple-doubles so far this season. That’s more than any other player has managed throughout their career. And the Mercury still has 8 games left to play.

In terms of defense, Thomas isn’t as effective a rim-protector as A’ja Wilson. The six-foot-four center from Las Vegas is averaging more than 2 blocks per game, and her defensive rebounding means that teams don’t often get second chances. On the flip side, the Phoenix Mercury star is an excellent perimeter disruptor! Alyssa Thomas pokes the ball away with her lightning-quick hands and creates fast-break opportunities for her entire team.

So there’s no consensus winner between the two. They’re completely different players with completely different skillsets. But that doesn’t necessarily answer our question about who’s ahead in this MVP race, so let’s take a look at the betting odds and see what they reveal.

Napheesa Collier to stop Las Vegas MVP repeat? WNBA MVP betting odds and more

Even though A’ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas are playing exceptional basketball, are they really a match for Napheesa Collier when she comes back from injury? We will have to wait to know. Collier’s season has been beyond exceptional. Before her ankle sprain, the Minnesota Lynx star was projected to finish with only the second-ever 50/40/90 season in WNBA history.

Collier, in 26 games, is averaging 23.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.6 blocks every night. Or, in other words, she’s the happy medium between both Wilson and Thomas. Equally dangerous offensively, and a lockdown defender both inside the paint, and around the arc. Her efficiency was better than both Wilson and Thomas, considering that her 53.7% FG also included three-pointers at an insanely high clip.

So, there’s no telling if A’ja Wilson or Alyssa Thomas would be able to walk away with this award if ‘Phee gets better. In fact, even BetMGM shares a similar sentiment! The sports betting site, in collaboration with the WNBA, released the latest MVP odds on Aug 20th. And surprise, surprise–Napheesa Collier was still at the top!

“Since late May, Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier has been the betting favorite to win MVP at the BetMGM online sportsbook. She remains a -325 favorite, giving her an implied probability of 76.47%, despite being out for more than two weeks with an ankle injury,” Shane Jackson from BetMGM reported. However, it also mentioned that A’ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas were close enough that it could create drama in the final few weeks of the season.

Only six players are left in the ring for MVP honors, according to BetMGM, and only three have a realistic chance:

• Napheesa Collier -325
• A’ja Wilson +450
• Alyssa Thomas +600

Still, a lot of things will depend on the last few weeks of the WNBA season. If Napheesa Collier comes back with a bang, then it might be over for both A’ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas. We can’t wait to see all three stars in action, because this MVP race is really heating up!