The gloom is finally ending, and college football Kickoff is just days away, with Iowa State facing off against Kansas State on Saturday in Week 1. But before we get to that, the expectations from the 2026 QBs are also sky high, as they are trying to seal their draft fates and potentially trying to become a top-five pick. One such quarterback is Garrett Nussmeier, who came back to LSU for the 2025 season “to win a national championship” but also to solidify his draft stock. However, if you ask ESPN’s Field Yates, he has a different theory about Nussmeier’s 2026 draft fate.

“God brought me to LSU for a reason. I always wanted to win a national championship here. It wasn’t about winning a Heisman or being the first overall pick. It was just about winning championships, so having that opportunity, I just couldn’t pass it up,” said Garrett as he made his return for the 2025 season after passing for 4,052 yards last year. While that performance may look solid, underneath that lie turnover problems, inconsistent decision-making, and most of all concerns regarding his frame, which is widely touted not to be “NFL-ready.” These were probably the reasons why Field Yates didn’t even keep Garrett in his top 15 picks.

Yates, in his ‘way-too-early’ mock draft, picked Arch Manning as his first pick, going to the Cleveland Browns, while LaNorris Sellers went second to the New York Jets. Cade Klubnik went 3rd overall to the New Orleans Saints, Sam Leavitt, as 9th to the Los Angeles Rams, and Drew Allar, being the 11th pick, went to the Indianapolis Colts. As for Garrett Nussmeier, Yates kept him as the 16th overall pick, going to the Pittsburgh Steelers as Aaron Rodgers’ replacement, who is likely going to retire after this season. But even then, he mentioned Fernando Mendoza of the Indiana Hoosiers, having the ability to topple Nussmeier’s 16th pick. Yates’ reasoning? Simple.

“He lacks dynamic athleticism and has just solid arm strength, but he is still able to deliver the ball on time and to spots where his receivers can create after the catch,” wrote Yates, and even mentioned Nussmeier’s patellar tendinitis issue. Now, for Fernando Mendoza, Yates touted him to be in the mix. “One more QB prospect who could be in the mix: Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. He has an impressive ability to process and play under duress, and I saw some ‘wow’ throws on tape,” concluded Field Yates. But is Yates right in placing Nussmeier as the 16th pick?

Standing at 6’2″ and 200 lbs, the frame concerns have always been there for Nussmeier, as we constantly saw him struggling to dodge hits in the SEC play, getting sacked 22 times last year in total. Then there were problems in turnovers when we saw the QB staring down primary targets that probably resulted in turnovers against the Aggies last year, as Nussmeier gave away 3 interceptions. In comparison to him, Indiana’s new QB provides optimism in several departments.

Mendoza’s frame at 6’5″ and 225 lbs is widely touted to be “NFL ready” along with his “exceptional arm strength” that allows him to cover every blade of grass. Moreover, his performances last year at Cal, where he passed for 3,004 yards and rushed for 105 yards, were solid at a 68.7% accuracy (4,712 total passing yards in two years), bolstering his case. Still, his sack rate at 9.4% dropbacks was alarming, and injury concerns were there for him, too, as he missed multiple games last year. So, who should realistically be ahead, Garrett Nussmeier or Fernando Mendoza?

Several prominent analysts remain split over Garrett Nussmeier

Apart from Field Yates’ way-too-early rankings, other prominent entities still keep Garrett Nussmeier in their top 5. For instance, Nfldraftbuzz.com, a prominent website that grades NFL draft players, has Garrett Nussmeier as its 2nd ranked QB going into the 2025 season, right after Arch Manning. While the site has ranked Fernando Mendoza quite low at 9th position, even behind QBs like Nico Iamaleava, Sam Leavitt, and Carson Beck. That said, there are people in favor of Mendoza, too.

Josh Edwards of CBS Sports kept Mendoza at 3rd position while Nussmeier at 7th when ranking the top ten offensive prospects for the 2026 NFL Draft. “Mendoza is a taller quarterback with a filled-out frame. The best way to describe his play style is professional, like Eli Manning. He plays with pace and rhythm while making good decisions with the football. It is easier to project him to the next level than South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, for example,” wrote Josh Edwards. The verdict?

At the end of the day? What would matter is the performance of the 2025 season, and so these rankings should be taken with a pinch of salt. For instance, we can see QBs like Cade Klubnik and LaNorris Sellers regressing compared to lesser talked-about QBs like Carson Beck rising due to the elite offensive pieces around them. In that sense, we could also see Nussmeier overcoming his 2024 mistakes and delivering a historic season, probably like Joe Burrow. For now, the predictions and debates rage on, but soon enough, the scoreboard will settle them.